Supply Archives | Opportunity Identified

October 11, 2015 | Posted by David Zarling, Head of Investment Research

Supply And Demand

Back on September 28th, we took a look at the S&P 500 (SPY) and shared the following with our readers:

We anticipate buyers should step in right here and provide a relief rally. If that takes place, any ownership should be sold until new highs are made.

9 trading days and +7% later, here we are with another update. And again, we are at an important juncture. After anticipating this rip-your-face-off rally, we’ve reached a level of resistance that is worth watching. As you might remember, price is simply the interaction of supply and demand. More demand than supply, price goes up. More supply than demand, price goes down. This is economic law. Price moves to equilibrium — where there is a balance between supply and demand — until one outbalances the other and a new equilibrium must be discovered. In liquid markets, such as the S&P 500, this is an ongoing and fluid process.

As we study price (aka technical analysis), we can identify those areas where supply (selling) and demand (buying) are greatest just by watching price itself. As of Friday’s closing price, the S&P 500 (using ETF SPY as our proxy), has hit an area of resistance we find significant. In the past, the 201-203 area was an area of support, where buyers would step in and send price upward. This characteristic changed on August 21st, when SPY dropped through this important level without buyers stepping in. Using the chart from September 28, let’s zoom in a bit so you can see what we’re referring to:

We see price is currently up against an area of resistance. Looking left , we find this area of resistance was previously an area of support, where buyers stepped in to create demand. But on August 21st, this changed. On that date, there were not enough buyers to keep price from descending through this level. Accordingly, this area of support became an area of resistance, which was confirmed on September 17th, when increasing prices were met with significant supply (selling) at the 202 level, sending price downward in search of new demand.

Because of the aforementioned, we will be watching price closely. Those long SPY want to see buyers increase and drive price through this level and on to new highs. Those short want to see resistance hold and price turn downward again. We anticipate that sellers will step in at this level. However, we’ll let price determine our next step.

Trade safe.

Disclaimer: Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell a security. Simply put, you are an adult. You invest based on your own decisions.

September 28, 2015 | Posted by David Zarling, Head of Investment Research

Should You Own U.S. Stocks Right Now?

As you know, at 360 Investment Research, we’re big proponents of price. Price is the manifestation of opinion and final arbiter of value. When we visualize price on a chart, all we need to do is look left to identify important characteristics of the security we’re observing. We like to look for evidence to support our investment decisions. The best and most important piece of evidence is price. What is it doing? What’s its direction? If price is making higher highs and higher lows, the trend is up. If price is making lower highs and lower lows, the trend is down. By analyzing price itself, we can determine the general trend and the potential change thereof.

When observing a popular U.S. equity market, such as the S&P 500, we can grasp the current state of that market by looking at its price action. To summarize what we’re seeing currently, the price behavior of the S&P 500 indicates there is no reason to own U.S. equities (as a whole) right now.

Using the ETF SPY as our proxy for the S&P 500, you can see that our concerns dating back to 01/17/15 were warranted. Here is the chart of SPY we shared on that day back in January:

[click to enlarge]

And, here is the same chart updated through today’s prices:

[click to enlarge]

As you can clearly see, price moved to new highs in early February, but could not hold them. The lower green trendline proved to be a significant resistance point, that when broken, brought in new supply (aka selling). Accordingly, a new lower low was established, indicating a major change in trend could be upon us. Subsequently, we noticed a new lower high recently, where sellers stepped in near the 200.00 level, causing the price to fall again. Bringing us to today. See the re-annotated chart below:

[click to enlarge]

As a reminder, in an uptrending market, we want to see higher highs and higher lows. As of right now, a new lower low and lower high have been established. If buyers do not step in at this junction, price will fall rapidly again to find demand. Though it is possible that a rip-your-face-off rally could take place from this price point, we want nothing to do with this (as a long trade) until new highs are established (a close above 212.00). Each gray area indicates where previous demand, now turned to supply, will be at its greatest. And if the lower green tramline (aka parallel line equidistant from previous trendlines) breaks, the next area of support / demand near 177.00 will be tested.

Nothing is guaranteed and our opinions, no matter how strong they are, don’t matter. Only price matters. We’ll continue to watch price to identify our next move and find our next opportunity.

Trade safe.

Disclaimer: Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell a security. Simply put, you are an adult. You invest based on your own decisions.

February 17, 2015 | Posted by David Zarling, Head of Investment Research

Stay Calm And Break Out? London Financial Times Index On The Verge

If you initiated positions in the London Financial Times Index back in the year 2000, you would now be back to even. This index, representing the 100 largest publicly traded companies in the United Kingdom, just reached 6898.13, its highest close since 1999 (6950.60). That’s 15 years ago if you need to do the maths like me! After a decade and a half, and two steep price corrections, the FTSE is at par. Some investors might call the past 15 years exhausting. Others might call it consolidation. If the latter, then we may be on the verge of an opportunity. From a big picture perspective, you can see the magnitude of this price action in the first chart below, which holds the monthly price candlesticks from 1990 through today.

When we zoom in to the weekly chart (see below), we find that the British index has been battling the 6800-6890 level for about 2 years. This level is overhead resistance – where sellers show up and cause the price to stagnate, retrace, and find demand. As a reminder, price is the work of supply and demand. More supply than demand, price goes down. More demand than supply, price goes up. For nearly 24 months, the 6800-6890 level has provided plenty of supply.

Digging deeper into the index on the daily chart (see below), the significance of this level can be clearly seen. We are on the tenth attempt to break this level. The more times price attempts to break through resistance, the weaker that area of supply becomes. Today, we may have witnessed the breakthrough. If that’s the case, the opportunity ramifications are large. The longer the base (2 years -or- 15 years!), the higher the space. If this breakout holds and does not prove to be a false breakout (closing below 6800), then the initial price target is 7700, 12% above current levels. The risk is well defined as we don’t want any exposure below 6800. A risk of 1% for a gain of 12%. Not bad.

Click here to receive great opportunities like this in your in-box: Free Email Notification Sign-up

February 4, 2015 | Posted by David Zarling, Head of Investment Research

PAYX: The Trade That Was Wrong In All The Right Ways

[Note: as of 02/11/15, a long position has been established in the subject stock based on the parameters outlined at the end of this article. We have initial targets of 51.60 and 55.00 identified.]

Ten days ago, we wrote about a stock we thought was going higher based on its breakout from 11 weeks of consolidation. We were wrong. And we like it. At 360 Investment Research, we aren’t concerned about being right. We’re concerned about being on the right side of the trade. In this instance, our methodology was solid:

Price was breaking out to new highs
The breakout was occurring after 11 weeks of sideways price action
The sideways consolidation took place after a large cup consolidation
All the aforementioned was taking place within a well-defined weekly uptrend
We could identify when we were wrong (stops of 47.50 and 47.00)
We had a target based on the pattern (55.00) that held an asymmetric risk/reward ratio

With the aforementioned parameters, we would make that trade again and still could (more on that in a bit). In this case, we were stopped out at 47.50, which eliminated our exposure to the 5 day, 5% drop in price. Such an event will school you quickly on investment psychology. Our risk management was solid.

So what happened? Why didn’t our higher probability scenario of more new highs play out? Simple. Buyers disappeared. Price discovery (the determination of price) is rooted in the simple economic law of supply and demand. More demand than supply, the price goes up. More supply than demand, the price goes down. In this particular instance, price rose to new highs and demand disappeared. When breakouts like this one fail, it carries significance and means demand was exhausted. When this happens, price can experience quick downward pressure. Hence the phrase, “from false moves come fast moves.” This was confirmed in PAYX by observing the swift downward price action over five days. With technical analysis helping us identify a proper exit, we were able to avoid this rapid decline. In addition, it should be noted that it also allows us to change our trade to short. Knowing the aforementioned – that a failure of the breakout would likely mean rapid price decline, we’re able to jump on the other side of the trade quickly. A current month, in the money put option (near our exit point), gained over 60% in five days. That is the power of technical analysis – knowing when you’re wrong, which can put you on the right side of the trade.

As for the future plans on PAYX, we like that it held within the green upward price channel and found new buyers near its most logical point of demand (44-44.50). We’ll own it above 48.00. Below that price level, we’re not interested.

Click here to receive great risk management like this in your in-box: Free Email Notification Sign-up

July 9, 2014 | Posted by David Zarling, Head of Investment Research

Keep Calm and Carry On?

Of late, the FTSE (London Times Stock Exchange) has been struggling to make new highs. When looking to the left on the daily chart, we see that lower highs and lower lows (even though minimal) are beginning to accumulate. In addition, this level appears to bring out plenty of supply (sellers). The overall trend is up, but tightening within an ascending triangle. This price action makes us sit up and take notice. A substantial move could be in the works within the next three months. The FTSE has struggled since early 2013 to clear the 2008 highs. We’d like to see this index break upward (or at minimum, hold this level) to confirm all other current global equity bull markets. If FTSE breaks down, it will cause us to watch all other global equity markets (most notably, the US) with more scrutiny. Keep calm, curious investor.