Participation Archives | Opportunity Identified

May 30, 2017 | Posted by David Zarling, Head of Investment Research

The Index You Never Heard Of Is Giving Important Insight

For our readers in the United States, we hope this update finds you refreshed after the long weekend and remembering those who gave their life to ensure their fellow countrymen remain free. The U.S. Markets were closed for this important observance, with trading resuming this morning. If you’re a regular reader of our work, you know it’s important to take a look at price, markets, and trends from different angles. Any edge we can gain in identifying opportunities is valuable. In this week’s post, we want to show you an important index you’ve probably never heard of that can provide valuable insights regarding the health of the U.S. stock market: the Value Line Geometric Index (XVG). This index tracks the median move of stocks within the index using the assumption that each stock has an equal amount (for example, $1,000) invested in them. The daily average move of this index is calculated geometrically (rather than arithmetically). I don’t want to bore you with the details, but if you need more info, you can read more about the methodology here, page 4. More simply put, this index eliminates an illusion created by weighted index components. Weighted stocks within an index can pull it higher even as the majority of the stocks within the index are not following along. For example, in a weighted index like the S&P 500, it’s possible for the top 100 weighted stocks to carry the index higher while the remaining 400 stocks lose value. As an investor, it might be helpful to identify when this is happening.

By looking at the Value Line Geometric Index alongside the S&P 500, we gain valuable insight into what is currently taking place in the market. Looking at the chart below, the Value Line Geometric Index is in the upper panel and the S&P 500 in the lower.

Notice the equal-weighted Value Line index is holding steady above the highs of 1998, 2007, and 2015 while the S&P 500 has continued higher (divergence). This condition has been persistent since December 2016. This means the market is thin: money is flowing into large cap stocks and leaving the rest behind. This is a stock picker’s market and can be a hallmark of market tops, but is not a guarantee a price correction is upon us. It should be noted when looking at the chart above that this condition can persist for quite a while before there is an overall resolution to the market (aka a correction in price). In the past, a noticeable divergence developed between the Value Line Geometric Index and the cap-weighted S&P 500 before the S&P 500 corrected in price. This doesn’t mean the S&P will correct in price right now or at all. But, it does mean that it is getting harder to find U.S. stocks that are trending up. If the majority of U.S. stocks are flat or down, what stocks are carrying the market higher? Awesome question. Let’s take a look at the data. Here’s a great visual from Financial Times using data from Bloomberg:

This chart shows while most stocks within the S&P 500 have been flat, it’s Technology pulling this major index higher. Many assume when the S&P 500 records new highs, it means everything under the surface is participating. This couldn’t be further from the truth. In fact, many sectors are currently underperforming the overall index. Because of tech’s large weighting (over 20%) in the S&P 500, it’s been carrying the water for other sectors currently struggling to gain traction for the past few months.

While the condition persists, market participants will need to be diligent in their stock selection. In addition, we’ll want to watch for clues from the leading sector, Technology, on whether this current run can continue. It’s a positive when economic bellwethers like Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Facebook (FB), Google (GOOGL), Nvidia (NVDA), Adobe (ADBE), Microsoft (MSFT), and Netflix (NFLX) can lead. At the same time, it would be healthy if more sectors start to participate. If and when laggards like Energy and Financials find demand, it could signal another strong leg higher for the overall market. But if Technology start to sell off and the Value Line Geometric Index fails to hold these recent highs, it likely means a decent correction will be underway. As always, we don’t need to predict to invest. Price is the only fact that matters. And as long as this condition is in place, we’ll be watching the price of the S&P 500 closely. You should be too.

As always, you can get real-time updates and commentary about this development and many more opportunities here: @360Research

AND, you’ve got FREE access to a time-saving tool we’ve created, The Ultimate ETF Cheat Sheet. Click this link to get your FREE easy-to-use resource guide for all your ETF needs.

Disclaimer: Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell a security. You invest based on your own decisions. Everything in this post is meant for educational and entertainment purposes only. I or my affiliates may hold positions in securities mentioned in this blog. Please see our Disclosure page for full disclaimer.

May 8, 2017 | Posted by David Zarling, Head of Investment Research

Why The Hindenburg Omen Is More Than Just A Scary Name

Four days ago, on May 4th, a Hindenburg Omen triggered on the same day for both the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq Composite. Recording a Hindenburg Omen for both exchanges on the same day is a rare event. This chart, courtesy of SentimentTrader, shows just how rare this event is:

Before we dig into the market implications, let’s put the work in and get a big picture understanding of the Hindenburg Omen, how it came to be, what it is, what it’s not, and how we can use it to identify opportunity and manage risk.

Ironically, two days ago (May 6th) was the 80th anniversary of the tragic explosion of the Hindenburg, a behemoth airship which measured as long as the famous ocean liner, Titanic. Filled with hydrogen, the Hindenburg represented the aspirations of human flight only a decade after Charles Lindbergh became the first to fly solo across the Atlantic. The Hindenburg carried passengers during a time when very few had experienced human flight. It was a futuristic symbol of aviation and an icon of technological progress. However, on May 6, 1937, the Hindenburg exploded in flames, crashing to the ground, taking 36 lives with it. It was a catastrophe not only because of the loss of life, but because just like the Titanic, the Hindenburg had once projected invincibility. It was a tragedy which reverberated across the globe as new technologies of film, tv, and radio, carried the calamitous news far and wide. Are you familiar with the phrase, “oh, the humanity!”? These were Herbert Morrison’s famous words as he emotionally reacted to the disaster live on radio. Watch the 40-second clip below to hear the emotion in his voice and grasp the magnitude of this event:

To the world in 1937, this was a tragedy of immense proportion. And for decades following, the word “Hindenburg” was synonymous with catastrophe. Which brings us to the Hindenburg Omen, a technical indicator named after the aforementioned crash. If using the word “Hindenburg” wasn’t enough, adding the word “Omen” surely solidified the sinister connotation implied when labeling one of the most misunderstood indicators in the market today. If you were to Google “Hindenburg Omen,” you would receive a plethora of results providing the metrics for calculating it, yet none of them are in agreement. We’re not going to pretend this article has the final say on the specifics of the Hindenburg Omen. But, we’re hoping this post provides a tremendous amount of clarity (and sanity) regarding this legitimate approach for identifying market conditions during which there is an increased likelihood of a market correction.

Let’s break down the Hindenburg Omen into bite-size factoids and illustrations for better understanding:

The Hindenburg Omen is meant to operate as a warning signal and was developed by the late James R. Miekka as an improvement to Gerald Appel’s Split Market Signal.
A man named Kennedy Gammage first named the indicator “the Hindenburg Omen” in his market newsletter, the Richland Report. The label stuck. And in our humble opinion, this was a terrible label meant to imply and sensationalize disaster ahead for the market. Case in point, in today’s financial media, when there is a Hindenburg Omen sighting (which may not even be accurate – see below), they sensationalize it (e.g. “This Indicator Just Signaled Market Disaster Ahead”), and then dismiss it as ineffective when the market does not sell off dramatically.
The Hindenburg Omen does not guarantee large market corrections. Rather, it highlights when the market being measured is showing signs of fracturing, which can lead to corrections large AND small.
The Omen can be calculated and tracked on difference indices such as the Nasdaq Composite and New York Stock Exchange.
The Hindenburg Omen’s basic function is to identify when significant bifurcation is taking place within any given market. Basically, think of it this way. Imagine you are driving down a two-lane highway with hundreds of other vehicles, all heading in the same direction. The traffic is flowing in sync at about 75 miles per hour. This is perfectly normal and expected behavior. We’re making great time and life is good. All of a sudden, the traffic in the left lane accelerates to 90 miles per hour and the traffic in the right lane slams on the breaks. What’s going on here? Is it an accident? Is there road construction? Has someone been pulled over by highway patrol? We won’t know until we travel further down the road. It could be nothing, but understandably, we may want to take heed and be on alert for something odd up ahead. It’s the same way with the Hindenburg Omen, which does a great job identifying when stocks are traveling at two different speeds (or more accurately, directions).
Here is the formula for triggering a Hindenburg Omen, as written by Jim Miekka himself:
1. First, the number of issues in a specific exchange hitting 52-week highs (left lane of traffic) and lows (right lane of traffic) must both exceed 2.8 percent of the number of issues in said exchange. (Many articles report a requirement of 2.2 percent, which is incorrect.)
2. Second, the benchmark index for the exchange must be above the value it had 50 trading days, or 10 weeks, ago. (Again, many sources get this incorrect, referencing an exchange must be above its 50-day moving average. This is not accurate.)
3. Once the two aforementioned events have occurred, the signal is valid for 30 trading days. During the 30 days, the signal is activated whenever the McClellan Oscillator (MCO) is negative, but deactivated whenever the MCO is positive. (This is an extremely important distinction that many publications inexplicably omit.)
There are many charts and articles on the internets which indicate the Hindenburg Omen is a “cry wolf” indicator that only “works” 30% of the time. Unfortunately, these articles use incorrect calculation methods (they do not use the parameters above, often omitting the McClellan Oscillator requirement) or use improper success metrics (e.g. since the market didn’t crash 20% – it only corrected 5% – the indicator doesn’t “work”). Garbage in. Garbage out. If the proper calculations are not used or improper means of measuring a successful result are taking place, then it’s no wonder there is so much confusion regarding the Hindenburg Omen.

To show just how important this signal is, here is a chart showing times when Jim Miekka’s Hindenburg Omen has triggered on the Nasdaq Composite:

Greg Morris, a 40-year market technician and acquaintance of Jim Miekka, was kind enough to use the correct methodology to create the signals in the lower pane of the chart above. It’s quite clear the Hindenburg Omen tends to be an important indicator of market fracturing. It’s not perfect. But even at first glance, it becomes obvious this indicator of market health has significance and should be recognized as a warning sign for the overall market. Does it guarantee an impending market correction? Absolutely not. But it does have the capacity to identify when markets are fractured and breadth is narrow, which are characteristics of an unhealthy market.

As always, price knows best. Higher highs in the overall market are still a possibility. Market bulls will want this bifurcation to resolve with increased participation and a reduction in new lows on each index. And whenever the Hindenburg Omen is referenced, make sure it’s Jim Miekka’s formula and not a clickbait garbage pushed by entertainment networks masquerading as financial news outlets. After all, data and facts matter. And when the real Hindenburg Omen triggers, market participants should pay attention to its warning.

As always, you can get real-time updates and commentary about this development and many more opportunities here: @360Research

AND, you’ve got FREE access to an investing tool we’ve created, The Ultimate ETF Cheat Sheet. It’s an easy-to-use resource guide.

January 15, 2015 | Posted by David Zarling, Head of Investment Research

Unique Index Provides Insight Into The Current State Of The U.S. Stock Market

It’s important to take a look at price, markets, and trends from different angles. Any edge we can gain in identifying opportunities is valuable. Today, we’re writing about an index that you might not be aware of, but that is very helpful in gaining insight into the current condition of the U.S. stock market: the Value Line Geometric Index (XVG). This index tracks the median move of stocks within the index using the assumption that each stock has an equal amount (for example, $1,000) invested in them. The daily average move of this index is calculated geometrically (rather than arithmetically). I don’t want to bore you with the details, but if you need more info, you can read more about the methodology here, page 4. More simply put, this index eliminates an illusion created by weighted index components. Weighted stocks within an index can pull it higher even as the majority of the stocks within the index are not following along. For example, in a weighted index like the S&P 500, it’s possible for the top 100 weighted stocks to carry the index higher while the remaining 400 stocks lose value. As an investor, it might be helpful to identify when this is happening.

We previously released research that provided a similar approach by looking at the percent of S&P 500 stocks that were above their 200 day moving average. In the same way, by looking at the Value Line Geometric Index alongside the S&P 500, we gain valuable insight into what is currently taking place in the market. Looking at the chart below, the Value Line Geometric Index is in the upper panel and the S&P 500 in the lower. Notice that the equal weighted Value Line index is struggling to break its previous highs from 1998 and 2007 while the S&P 500 has continued higher (divergence). This condition has been persistent since March, 2014. This means the market is thin: money is flowing into large cap stocks and leaving the rest behind. This is a stock picker’s market and can be a hallmark of market tops. It should be noted when looking at the chart below that this condition can persist for quite a while before there is an overall resolution to the market (aka a correction in price). In the past, a noticeable divergence developed between the equally weighted index and the weighted S&P 500 before the S&P 500 corrected in price. This doesn’t mean the S&P will correct in price right now or at all. But, it does mean that it is getting harder to find U.S. stocks that are trending up. And as long as this condition is in place, we’ll be watching the price of the S&P 500 closely. You should be too.

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November 12, 2014 | Posted by David Zarling, Head of Investment Research

Headlines Sell [Weight of Evidence, Part 1 of 7]

“This isn’t a stock market. This is a market of stocks.”

The quote above is a common phrase in Wall Street circles and it is absolutely true. You don’t have a stock market without the stocks. However, financial media will never present it that way. How many would read an article that says, “Individual Stocks Refuse to Participate in Broad Index Rally”? It is so much easier to click on headlines that read, “Market Rallies to All Time Highs” and, “S&P 500 at New Historic High”. After all, why let the facts get in the way of a good story? [thick sarcasm]

As curious investors, we need to know that the performance of stocks within an index is just as important as the performance of the index itself. And when the two don’t jive (this is called divergence), it is time to sit up and take notice. Now is one of those times. While the S&P 500 and DOW are making new historic highs (awesome!), the individual stocks within each index are not participating at the same pace (not awesome!). Less and less stocks are making new highs while the indexes themselves are at new highs. This is called a thinning (or stock pickers) market and could be a harbinger of a change in direction for the overall market. This is just a warning sign. Something to be aware of. We don’t need to take action… yet. We just need to be aware that things are not as they seem. This symptom can resolve itself with an increase in stock participation within this rally. If that happens, it means great things for the upward trajectory of the market. However, if this symptom does not resolve itself, any downturn in the market could be significant (a 10 to 30+% correction).

Now, on to the eye candy to show you what’s happening. The chart below is pretty simple. The line above is the percent of S&P 500 stocks that are above their 200 day moving average. Notice that a less and less percentage of stocks are above their 200 DMA. The line below is the S&P 500 itself. Price is at new highs. I’ve annotated (in 360 green) where past divergences have taken place. Notice the eventual reaction of the market. It doesn’t tell us when, but simply, that a resolution must take place. We’re taking notice as we weigh the evidence.